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‘Chinafication’ and International Order

30 Oct China Flag by dragonpreneur

China has entered the adolescent stage of its development into a superpower – the past few years have been epochal, peaking with China overtaking Japan as the second biggest economy. China states categorically that their rise is ‘peaceful’ while other countries (particularly America) call on China to become a ‘responsible stakeholder’. Here we have a clear divergence of opinion, but what can this tell us about the current state of the ‘world order’? (more…)

Logic of Lower Returns: Why Basel III Matters and More Needs to be Done (Part I)

11 Apr By Twen, shared under Creative Commons License

Most people are not worried about the finesse of financial regulation, but I will give here a brief explanation of the three Basel Accords. As expected it is the trilogy of some accords created in the sterile inter-governmental buildings in Basel designed to regulate finance.

As most film aficionados will confess, trilogies often get progressively worse: Star Wars, Blade, Matrix (does anyone understand the ending?), Die Hard, Pirates of the Caribbean, Transporter (yes they made three!). Occasionally you get a great trilogy: Toy Story and Back to the Future come to mind. 

Basel III, although not as cute as Toy Story or as thought provoking as BttF’s time travel is nevertheless a franchise that has improved with each chapter -but the work is far from finished. (more…)

The Beginnings of a Double-Dip Recession…possibly

11 Mar David Cameron, No 10, shared under Creative Commons

Let me preface this article by defining a double-dip recession: it is a term coined by economists, meaning two consecutive periods of negative GDP growth.

Britain is still vulnerable to a double-dip recession – but whether it be next quarter or not is anyone’s guess. There was a surprising GDP figure last quarter showing a contraction of 0.5 per cent, which was emphatically blamed on the weather. This data has recently been revised down to 0.6 per cent, and of this ONS predict that 0.4 per cent decline was due to the snow. Taking that into account we have a relatively small contraction of 0.2% ,leaving us with an indifferent economy. However, this bad weather merely delayed shoppers from spending, with a rush recorded just after Christmas to take advantage of the sales and to beat the impending VAT rise.

(more…)

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